AZ II vs MVV Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
AZ II vs MVV
Model pick: AZ II (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.94 – 1.34
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| AZ II | MVV |
|---|
| League position | #19 (0 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.4 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
*AZ II shown at home, MVV shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
AZ II — last 5
WWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 17% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
MVV — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | AZ II (home) | MVV (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 17% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Sem van Duijn (9) | – |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.94 vs 1.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — AZ II or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — MVV or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| AZ II clean sheet | 26% |
| MVV clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
AZ II is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. AZ II are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ AZ II vs MVV — FAQ
Who will win AZ II vs MVV?
Our statistical model makes AZ II the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: AZ II 49%, draw 24%, MVV 28%.
Will both teams score in AZ II vs MVV?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in AZ II vs MVV?
Expected goals are 1.94 for AZ II and 1.34 for MVV — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in AZ II vs MVV?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for AZ II or draw is 74%.