AZ II vs Utrecht II Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 31, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
AZ II vs Utrecht II
Model pick: AZ II (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.12 – 1.17
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| AZ II | Utrecht II |
|---|
| League position | #19 (0 pts) | #20 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.4 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 3.6 |
*AZ II shown at home, Utrecht II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
AZ II — last 5
WWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 17% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Utrecht II — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 9% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | AZ II (home) | Utrecht II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 17% | 9% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% |
| Top scorer | Sem van Duijn (9) | Rafik El Arguioui (11) |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.12 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — AZ II or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Utrecht II or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| AZ II clean sheet | 31% |
| Utrecht II clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
AZ II is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. AZ II are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ AZ II vs Utrecht II — FAQ
Who will win AZ II vs Utrecht II?
Our statistical model makes AZ II the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: AZ II 55%, draw 22%, Utrecht II 22%.
Will both teams score in AZ II vs Utrecht II?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in AZ II vs Utrecht II?
Expected goals are 2.12 for AZ II and 1.17 for Utrecht II — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in AZ II vs Utrecht II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for AZ II or draw is 80%.