Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely Prediction & Preview
Feeder Leagues (Wales) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FEEDER LEAGUES (WALES)
Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely
Model pick: Caerau Ely (62%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.02 – 2.32
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Baglan Dragons | Caerau Ely |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.5 / 0.75 | 2.6 / 3.2 |
*Baglan Dragons shown at home, Caerau Ely shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Baglan Dragons — last 5
DLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Caerau Ely — last 5
DLDWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Baglan Dragons (home) | Caerau Ely (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 75% |
Feeder Leagues (Wales) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.43
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 15%
Away wins: 40%
Over 2.5: 72%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Feeder Leagues (Wales) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 2.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Baglan Dragons or draw (1X) | 34% |
| Double chance — Caerau Ely or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Baglan Dragons clean sheet | 10% |
| Caerau Ely clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Caerau Ely is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Despite playing away, Caerau Ely edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely — FAQ
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely?
Our statistical model makes Caerau Ely the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Baglan Dragons 18%, draw 21%, Caerau Ely 62%.
Will both teams score in Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely?
Expected goals are 1.02 for Baglan Dragons and 2.32 for Caerau Ely — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (10%). Double chance for Baglan Dragons or draw is 34%.