Bahia vs Vasco da Gama Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama
Model pick: Bahia (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.73 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bahia | Vasco da Gama |
|---|
| League position | #5 (32 pts) | #18 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 36% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Bahia shown at home, Vasco da Gama shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bahia — last 5
LWDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Vasco da Gama — last 5
LDDWD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bahia (home) | Vasco da Gama (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-5-2 in 11 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-4-5 in 9 (1.1 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Jose Willian (2) | – |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.73 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Bahia or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Vasco da Gama or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 36% |
| Vasco da Gama clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bahia is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Bahia are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bahia vs Vasco da Gama — FAQ
Who will win Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?
Our statistical model makes Bahia the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Bahia 50%, draw 26%, Vasco da Gama 24%.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?
Expected goals are 1.73 for Bahia and 1.03 for Vasco da Gama — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Bahia or draw is 78%.