Baltika vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction & Preview
Russia Cup · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 17:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
RUSSIA CUP
Baltika vs Krylya Sovetov
Model pick: Baltika (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.56 – 0.56
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 23%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Baltika | Krylya Sovetov |
|---|
| League position | #6 (7 pts) | #11 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Baltika shown at home, Krylya Sovetov shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Baltika — last 5
LWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Krylya Sovetov — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Baltika (home) | Krylya Sovetov (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.3 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-2-0 in 3 (1.3 / 0.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 54% |
Russia Cup — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.13
Home wins: 54%
Draws: 1%
Away wins: 45%
Over 2.5: 68%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Russia Cup averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.56 vs 0.56):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (33%) |
| Double chance — Baltika or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Krylya Sovetov or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 56% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Baltika clean sheet | 57% |
| Krylya Sovetov clean sheet | 57% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Baltika is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Baltika are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (77% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Baltika vs Krylya Sovetov — FAQ
Who will win Baltika vs Krylya Sovetov?
Our statistical model makes Baltika the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Baltika 45%, draw 32%, Krylya Sovetov 23%.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Krylya Sovetov?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Baltika vs Krylya Sovetov?
Expected goals are 0.56 for Baltika and 0.56 for Krylya Sovetov — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Baltika vs Krylya Sovetov?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (33%). Double chance for Baltika or draw is 72%.