Baltyk Koszalin vs Kalisz Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Baltyk Koszalin vs Kalisz
Model pick: Kalisz (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.79 – 1.03
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Baltyk Koszalin | Kalisz |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.75 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Baltyk Koszalin shown at home, Kalisz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Baltyk Koszalin — last 5
WLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Kalisz — last 5
DWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Baltyk Koszalin (home) | Kalisz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 43% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.25
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.79 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (17%) |
| Double chance — Baltyk Koszalin or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Kalisz or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Baltyk Koszalin clean sheet | 36% |
| Kalisz clean sheet | 45% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kalisz is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Kalisz edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Baltyk Koszalin vs Kalisz — FAQ
Who will win Baltyk Koszalin vs Kalisz?
Our statistical model makes Kalisz the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Baltyk Koszalin 28%, draw 32%, Kalisz 39%.
Will both teams score in Baltyk Koszalin vs Kalisz?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Baltyk Koszalin vs Kalisz?
Expected goals are 0.79 for Baltyk Koszalin and 1.03 for Kalisz — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Baltyk Koszalin vs Kalisz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (17%). Double chance for Baltyk Koszalin or draw is 60%.