Bari vs Cavese Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Bari vs Cavese
Model pick: Bari (62%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.53 – 0.7
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bari | Cavese |
|---|
| League position | #17 (40 pts) | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.3 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 37% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1.0 |
*Bari shown at home, Cavese shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bari — last 5
WWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Cavese — last 5
DDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bari (home) | Cavese (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-5-7 in 19 (1.2 / 1.3 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 45% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.53 vs 0.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Bari or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Cavese or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Bari clean sheet | 50% |
| Cavese clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bari is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Bari are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bari vs Cavese — FAQ
Who will win Bari vs Cavese?
Our statistical model makes Bari the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Bari 62%, draw 23%, Cavese 16%.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Cavese?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Bari vs Cavese?
Expected goals are 1.53 for Bari and 0.7 for Cavese — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bari vs Cavese?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Bari or draw is 83%.