Basel vs Lausanne Sport Prediction & Preview
Super League (Switzerland) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Basel vs Lausanne Sport
Model pick: Basel (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.93 – 1.06
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Basel | Lausanne Sport |
|---|
| League position | #30 (6 pts) | #9 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Basel shown at home, Lausanne Sport shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Basel — last 5
LLDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Lausanne Sport — last 5
LWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Basel (home) | Lausanne Sport (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-2 in 4 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (0.3 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% |
| Top scorer | – | Omar Janneh (8) |
Super League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.05
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Super League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.93 vs 1.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Basel or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Lausanne Sport or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Basel clean sheet | 35% |
| Lausanne Sport clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Basel is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Basel are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Basel vs Lausanne Sport — FAQ
Who will win Basel vs Lausanne Sport?
Our statistical model makes Basel the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Basel 49%, draw 24%, Lausanne Sport 27%.
Will both teams score in Basel vs Lausanne Sport?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Basel vs Lausanne Sport?
Expected goals are 1.93 for Basel and 1.06 for Lausanne Sport — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Basel vs Lausanne Sport?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Basel or draw is 80%.