Basel vs Thun Prediction & Preview
Super League (Switzerland) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Basel vs Thun
Model pick: Basel (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.8 – 1.53
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Basel | Thun |
|---|
| League position | #30 (6 pts) | #8 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 2.6 |
*Basel shown at home, Thun shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Basel — last 5
LDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Thun — last 5
LDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Basel (home) | Thun (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-2 in 4 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 66% |
| Top scorer | – | Christopher Ibayi (10) |
Super League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.05
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Super League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.8 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Basel or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Thun or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Basel clean sheet | 22% |
| Thun clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Basel is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Basel are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Basel vs Thun — FAQ
Who will win Basel vs Thun?
Our statistical model makes Basel the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Basel 43%, draw 24%, Thun 33%.
Will both teams score in Basel vs Thun?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Basel vs Thun?
Expected goals are 1.8 for Basel and 1.53 for Thun — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Basel vs Thun?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Basel or draw is 67%.