Baumberg vs Uerdingen Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Baumberg vs Uerdingen
Model pick: Uerdingen (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.97 – 2.24
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Baumberg | Uerdingen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.5 / 4.0 | 2.4 / 1.6 |
*Baumberg shown at home, Uerdingen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Baumberg — last 5
LD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Uerdingen — last 5
DLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Baumberg (home) | Uerdingen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 48% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.54
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 66%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.97 vs 2.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Baumberg or draw (1X) | 34% |
| Double chance — Uerdingen or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Baumberg clean sheet | 11% |
| Uerdingen clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Uerdingen is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Despite playing away, Uerdingen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Baumberg vs Uerdingen — FAQ
Who will win Baumberg vs Uerdingen?
Our statistical model makes Uerdingen the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Baumberg 18%, draw 21%, Uerdingen 61%.
Will both teams score in Baumberg vs Uerdingen?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Baumberg vs Uerdingen?
Expected goals are 0.97 for Baumberg and 2.24 for Uerdingen — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Baumberg vs Uerdingen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (10%). Double chance for Baumberg or draw is 34%.