Bautzen vs Auerbach Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Bautzen vs Auerbach
Model pick: Draw (66%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.15 – 0.23
Total goals: 0.4
Over 2.5: 6%
Both teams score: 17%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bautzen | Auerbach |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.67 / 6.33 | 1.0 / 1.33 |
*Bautzen shown at home, Auerbach shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bautzen — last 5
LLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Auerbach — last 5
LLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bautzen (home) | Auerbach (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.34
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.15 vs 0.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (68%) |
| Double chance — Bautzen or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Auerbach or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 29% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 6% / 94% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 0% / 100% |
| Bautzen clean sheet | 79% |
| Auerbach clean sheet | 86% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
66%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (94% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bautzen vs Auerbach — FAQ
Who will win Bautzen vs Auerbach?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 66%. Full probabilities: Bautzen 14%, draw 66%, Auerbach 20%.
Will both teams score in Bautzen vs Auerbach?
The model gives a 17% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Bautzen vs Auerbach?
Expected goals are 0.15 for Bautzen and 0.23 for Auerbach — about 0.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bautzen vs Auerbach?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (68%). Double chance for Bautzen or draw is 82%.