Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Germany) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (GERMANY)
Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart
Model pick: Bayern Munich (71%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.84 – 1.16
Total goals: 4.0
Over 2.5: 66%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bayern Munich | Stuttgart |
|---|
| League position | #2 (21 pts) | #11 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.5 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 5.2 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 0.6 |
*Bayern Munich shown at home, Stuttgart shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bayern Munich — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Stuttgart — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bayern Munich (home) | Stuttgart (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-0 in 4 (3.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-0-3 in 4 (1.0 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 62% |
| Top scorer | Harry Kane (14) | – |
Bundesliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.12
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 59%
Use these Bundesliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.84 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Bayern Munich or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Stuttgart or draw (X2) | 28% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 91% / 9% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Bayern Munich clean sheet | 31% |
| Stuttgart clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bayern Munich is the model's most likely outcome at
71%. Bayern Munich are backed at home, where they average 3.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.0, this shapes as an open game (66% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart — FAQ
Who will win Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart?
Our statistical model makes Bayern Munich the most likely result at 71%. Full probabilities: Bayern Munich 71%, draw 16%, Stuttgart 13%.
Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart?
Expected goals are 2.84 for Bayern Munich and 1.16 for Stuttgart — about 4.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Bayern Munich or draw is 87%.