Bayreuth vs Burghausen Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Bayreuth vs Burghausen
Model pick: Bayreuth (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.25
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bayreuth | Burghausen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.2 | 2.0 / 2.4 |
*Bayreuth shown at home, Burghausen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bayreuth — last 5
DLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Burghausen — last 5
WDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bayreuth (home) | Burghausen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 75% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.26
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.65 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Bayreuth or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Burghausen or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Bayreuth clean sheet | 29% |
| Burghausen clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bayreuth is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Bayreuth are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bayreuth vs Burghausen — FAQ
Who will win Bayreuth vs Burghausen?
Our statistical model makes Bayreuth the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Bayreuth 45%, draw 26%, Burghausen 30%.
Will both teams score in Bayreuth vs Burghausen?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bayreuth vs Burghausen?
Expected goals are 1.65 for Bayreuth and 1.25 for Burghausen — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bayreuth vs Burghausen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Bayreuth or draw is 71%.