Bayreuth vs Illertissen Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Bayreuth vs Illertissen
Model pick: Illertissen (71%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.78 – 2.63
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bayreuth | Illertissen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 3.2 / 0.6 |
*Bayreuth shown at home, Illertissen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bayreuth — last 5
DWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Illertissen — last 5
WWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bayreuth (home) | Illertissen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 100% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.31
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.78 vs 2.63):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (11%) |
| Double chance — Bayreuth or draw (1X) | 23% |
| Double chance — Illertissen or draw (X2) | 91% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 44% / 56% |
| Bayreuth clean sheet | 7% |
| Illertissen clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Illertissen is the model's most likely outcome at
71%. Despite playing away, Illertissen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Bayreuth vs Illertissen — FAQ
Who will win Bayreuth vs Illertissen?
Our statistical model makes Illertissen the most likely result at 71%. Full probabilities: Bayreuth 11%, draw 17%, Illertissen 71%.
Will both teams score in Bayreuth vs Illertissen?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bayreuth vs Illertissen?
Expected goals are 0.78 for Bayreuth and 2.63 for Illertissen — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bayreuth vs Illertissen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (11%). Double chance for Bayreuth or draw is 23%.