Beasain vs Santurtzi Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Beasain vs Santurtzi
Model pick: Beasain (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.76 – 0.76
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Beasain | Santurtzi |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
*Beasain shown at home, Santurtzi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Beasain — last 5
DWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Santurtzi — last 5
DWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Beasain (home) | Santurtzi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 45% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.76 vs 0.76):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Beasain or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Santurtzi or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Beasain clean sheet | 47% |
| Santurtzi clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Beasain is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Beasain are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Beasain vs Santurtzi — FAQ
Who will win Beasain vs Santurtzi?
Our statistical model makes Beasain the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Beasain 57%, draw 25%, Santurtzi 18%.
Will both teams score in Beasain vs Santurtzi?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Beasain vs Santurtzi?
Expected goals are 1.76 for Beasain and 0.76 for Santurtzi — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Beasain vs Santurtzi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Beasain or draw is 84%.