Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Peng City Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 11:35 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Peng City
Model pick: Beijing Guoan (71%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.69 – 0.86
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Beijing Guoan | Shenzhen Peng City |
|---|
| League position | #7 (26 pts) | #11 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 10% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 2.0 |
*Beijing Guoan shown at home, Shenzhen Peng City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Beijing Guoan — last 5
WDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
Shenzhen Peng City — last 5
LWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Beijing Guoan (home) | Shenzhen Peng City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-3 in 11 (1.8 / 1.4 goals per game) | 1-1-8 in 10 (0.8 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 56% |
| Top scorer | – | Moraes Wesley (9) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.69 vs 0.86):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Beijing Guoan or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Shenzhen Peng City or draw (X2) | 24% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Beijing Guoan clean sheet | 42% |
| Shenzhen Peng City clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Beijing Guoan is the model's most likely outcome at
71%. Beijing Guoan are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Peng City — FAQ
Who will win Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Peng City?
Our statistical model makes Beijing Guoan the most likely result at 71%. Full probabilities: Beijing Guoan 71%, draw 17%, Shenzhen Peng City 12%.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Peng City?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Peng City?
Expected goals are 2.69 for Beijing Guoan and 0.86 for Shenzhen Peng City — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Peng City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%). Double chance for Beijing Guoan or draw is 91%.