Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun
Model pick: Beijing Guoan (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.38 – 1.37
Total goals: 3.8
Over 2.5: 64%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Beijing Guoan | Yunnan Yukun |
|---|
| League position | #5 (32 pts) | #2 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 2.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 1.2 | 2.6 / 2.0 |
*Beijing Guoan shown at home, Yunnan Yukun shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Beijing Guoan — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
Yunnan Yukun — last 5
DWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Beijing Guoan (home) | Yunnan Yukun (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-3 in 12 (2.0 / 1.2 goals per game) | 3-2-6 in 11 (1.8 / 2.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 65% |
| Top scorer | – | Oscar Taty Maritu (14) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.38 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Beijing Guoan or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Yunnan Yukun or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 89% / 11% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 52% / 48% |
| Beijing Guoan clean sheet | 25% |
| Yunnan Yukun clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Beijing Guoan is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Beijing Guoan are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.8, this shapes as an open game (64% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun — FAQ
Who will win Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model makes Beijing Guoan the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Beijing Guoan 56%, draw 21%, Yunnan Yukun 23%.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Expected goals are 2.38 for Beijing Guoan and 1.37 for Yunnan Yukun — about 3.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Beijing Guoan or draw is 79%.