Beijing Guoan vs Zhejiang Greentown Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 11:35 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Beijing Guoan vs Zhejiang Greentown
Model pick: Beijing Guoan (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.31 – 1.39
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Beijing Guoan | Zhejiang Greentown |
|---|
| League position | #7 (22 pts) | #8 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 |
*Beijing Guoan shown at home, Zhejiang Greentown shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Beijing Guoan — last 5
WWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
Zhejiang Greentown — last 5
DLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Beijing Guoan (home) | Zhejiang Greentown (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.8 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-2-5 in 10 (1.4 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 58% |
| Top scorer | – | Yudong Wang (7) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.31 vs 1.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Beijing Guoan or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Zhejiang Greentown or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 51% / 49% |
| Beijing Guoan clean sheet | 25% |
| Zhejiang Greentown clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Beijing Guoan is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Beijing Guoan are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Beijing Guoan vs Zhejiang Greentown — FAQ
Who will win Beijing Guoan vs Zhejiang Greentown?
Our statistical model makes Beijing Guoan the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Beijing Guoan 58%, draw 21%, Zhejiang Greentown 21%.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Zhejiang Greentown?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Beijing Guoan vs Zhejiang Greentown?
Expected goals are 2.31 for Beijing Guoan and 1.39 for Zhejiang Greentown — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Beijing Guoan vs Zhejiang Greentown?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Beijing Guoan or draw is 78%.