Belouizdad vs ES Sétif Prediction & Preview
Division-1 (Algeria) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION-1 (ALGERIA)
Belouizdad vs ES Sétif
Model pick: Belouizdad (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.69 – 0.59
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Belouizdad | ES Sétif |
|---|
| League position | #4 (0 pts) | #3 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Belouizdad shown at home, ES Sétif shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Belouizdad — last 5
LWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 46% of the time; 35% of home games go over 2.5.
ES Sétif — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Belouizdad (home) | ES Sétif (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 46% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 36% |
Division-1 (Algeria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.19
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 20%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Division-1 (Algeria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.69 vs 0.59):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Belouizdad or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — ES Sétif or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Belouizdad clean sheet | 55% |
| ES Sétif clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Belouizdad is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Belouizdad are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Belouizdad vs ES Sétif — FAQ
Who will win Belouizdad vs ES Sétif?
Our statistical model makes Belouizdad the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Belouizdad 60%, draw 25%, ES Sétif 15%.
Will both teams score in Belouizdad vs ES Sétif?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Belouizdad vs ES Sétif?
Expected goals are 1.69 for Belouizdad and 0.59 for ES Sétif — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Belouizdad vs ES Sétif?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Belouizdad or draw is 87%.