Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (TUNISIA)
Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien
Model pick: CS Sfaxien (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.56 – 0.94
Total goals: 1.5
Over 2.5: 31%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ben Guerdane | CS Sfaxien |
|---|
| League position | #6 (3 pts) | #4 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.4 | 2.0 / 0.6 |
*Ben Guerdane shown at home, CS Sfaxien shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ben Guerdane — last 5
WWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 28% of home games go over 2.5.
CS Sfaxien — last 5
WWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 41% of the time; 26% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ben Guerdane (home) | CS Sfaxien (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 41% |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 26% |
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.98
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 37%
Use these Ligue 1 (Tunisia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.56 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (22%) |
| Double chance — Ben Guerdane or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — CS Sfaxien or draw (X2) | 79% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 64% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 44% / 56% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 7% / 93% |
| Ben Guerdane clean sheet | 39% |
| CS Sfaxien clean sheet | 57% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CS Sfaxien is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, CS Sfaxien edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (69% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien — FAQ
Who will win Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien?
Our statistical model makes CS Sfaxien the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Ben Guerdane 22%, draw 36%, CS Sfaxien 42%.
Will both teams score in Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien?
Expected goals are 0.56 for Ben Guerdane and 0.94 for CS Sfaxien — about 1.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (22%). Double chance for Ben Guerdane or draw is 57%.