Ben Guerdane vs Hammam-Lif Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (TUNISIA)
Ben Guerdane vs Hammam-Lif
Model pick: Ben Guerdane (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.33 – 0.57
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ben Guerdane | Hammam-Lif |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #5 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 1.0 |
*Ben Guerdane shown at home, Hammam-Lif shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ben Guerdane — last 5
WWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 28% of home games go over 2.5.
Hammam-Lif — last 5
DLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 11% of the time; 34% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ben Guerdane (home) | Hammam-Lif (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 11% |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 34% |
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.98
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 37%
Use these Ligue 1 (Tunisia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.33 vs 0.57):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (20%) |
| Double chance — Ben Guerdane or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Hammam-Lif or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Ben Guerdane clean sheet | 57% |
| Hammam-Lif clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ben Guerdane is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Ben Guerdane are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ben Guerdane vs Hammam-Lif — FAQ
Who will win Ben Guerdane vs Hammam-Lif?
Our statistical model makes Ben Guerdane the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Ben Guerdane 52%, draw 30%, Hammam-Lif 18%.
Will both teams score in Ben Guerdane vs Hammam-Lif?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ben Guerdane vs Hammam-Lif?
Expected goals are 1.33 for Ben Guerdane and 0.57 for Hammam-Lif — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ben Guerdane vs Hammam-Lif?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (20%). Double chance for Ben Guerdane or draw is 84%.