Benevento vs Modena Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Italy) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (ITALY)
Benevento vs Modena
Model pick: Benevento (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.39 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Benevento | Modena |
|---|
| League position | #14 (0 pts) | #7 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 2.0 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Benevento shown at home, Modena shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Benevento — last 5
WWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Modena — last 5
WLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Benevento (home) | Modena (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 39% |
Serie B (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.45
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Serie B (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.39 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Benevento or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Modena or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Benevento clean sheet | 39% |
| Modena clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Benevento is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Benevento are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Benevento vs Modena — FAQ
Who will win Benevento vs Modena?
Our statistical model makes Benevento the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Benevento 42%, draw 29%, Modena 29%.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Modena?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Benevento vs Modena?
Expected goals are 1.39 for Benevento and 0.95 for Modena — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Benevento vs Modena?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Benevento or draw is 74%.