Benevento vs Südtirol Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Italy) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (ITALY)
Benevento vs Südtirol
Model pick: Benevento (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 0.84
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Benevento | Südtirol |
|---|
| League position | #15 (0 pts) | #7 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.4 | 2.4 / 0.4 |
*Benevento shown at home, Südtirol shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Benevento — last 5
WDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Südtirol — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 34% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Benevento (home) | Südtirol (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 34% |
Serie B (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.45
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Serie B (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Benevento or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Südtirol or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Benevento clean sheet | 43% |
| Südtirol clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Benevento is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Benevento are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Benevento vs Südtirol — FAQ
Who will win Benevento vs Südtirol?
Our statistical model makes Benevento the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Benevento 48%, draw 28%, Südtirol 24%.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Südtirol?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Benevento vs Südtirol?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Benevento and 0.84 for Südtirol — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Benevento vs Südtirol?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Benevento or draw is 78%.