Benfica II vs Leixões Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
Benfica II vs Leixões
Model pick: Benfica II (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 1.17
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Benfica II | Leixões |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #2 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.4 | 3.8 / 1.8 |
*Benfica II shown at home, Leixões shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Benfica II — last 5
DDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Leixões — last 5
WWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Benfica II (home) | Leixões (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Leonardo Vonic (4) | – |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Benfica II or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Leixões or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Benfica II clean sheet | 31% |
| Leixões clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Benfica II is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Benfica II are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Benfica II vs Leixões — FAQ
Who will win Benfica II vs Leixões?
Our statistical model makes Benfica II the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Benfica II 47%, draw 26%, Leixões 28%.
Will both teams score in Benfica II vs Leixões?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Benfica II vs Leixões?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Benfica II and 1.17 for Leixões — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Benfica II vs Leixões?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Benfica II or draw is 73%.