Benfica vs Estoril Prediction & Preview
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PORTUGUESE LIGA (PORTUGAL)
Benfica vs Estoril
Model pick: Benfica (77%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.05 – 0.76
Total goals: 3.8
Over 2.5: 64%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Benfica | Estoril |
|---|
| League position | #24 (9 pts) | #15 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.5 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.8 / 1.0 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
*Benfica shown at home, Estoril shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Benfica — last 5
WDDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 48% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Estoril — last 5
DDDLL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Benfica (home) | Estoril (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-2 in 4 (2.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 48% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Andreas Schjelderup (3) | – |
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Portuguese Liga (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.05 vs 0.76):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Benfica or draw (1X) | 94% |
| Double chance — Estoril or draw (X2) | 17% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 89% / 11% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Benfica clean sheet | 47% |
| Estoril clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Benfica is the model's most likely outcome at
77%. Benfica are backed at home, where they average 2.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.8, this shapes as an open game (64% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Benfica vs Estoril — FAQ
Who will win Benfica vs Estoril?
Our statistical model makes Benfica the most likely result at 77%. Full probabilities: Benfica 77%, draw 14%, Estoril 9%.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Estoril?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Benfica vs Estoril?
Expected goals are 3.05 for Benfica and 0.76 for Estoril — about 3.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Benfica vs Estoril?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (11%). Double chance for Benfica or draw is 94%.