Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur Prediction & Preview
Primera C Metro (Argentina) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA C METRO (ARGENTINA)
Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur
Model pick: Estrella Del Sur (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.69 – 0.98
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 35%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Berazategui | Estrella Del Sur |
|---|
| League position | #6 (38 pts) | #4 (39 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 31% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Berazategui shown at home, Estrella Del Sur shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Berazategui — last 5
WLDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 20% of home games go over 2.5.
Estrella Del Sur — last 5
LWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 25% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Berazategui (home) | Estrella Del Sur (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-4-4 in 12 (1.4 / 1.2 goals per game) | 4-4-5 in 13 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 25% |
Primera C Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.87
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 31%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 29%
BTTS: 34%
Use these Primera C Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.69 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Berazategui or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Estrella Del Sur or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 66% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| Berazategui clean sheet | 38% |
| Estrella Del Sur clean sheet | 50% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Estrella Del Sur is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Estrella Del Sur edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (65% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur — FAQ
Who will win Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur?
Our statistical model makes Estrella Del Sur the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Berazategui 26%, draw 34%, Estrella Del Sur 40%.
Will both teams score in Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur?
Expected goals are 0.69 for Berazategui and 0.98 for Estrella Del Sur — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (19%). Double chance for Berazategui or draw is 59%.