Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur Prediction & Preview
Primera C Metro (Argentina) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA C METRO (ARGENTINA)
Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur
Model pick: Estrella Del Sur (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.6 – 0.97
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 33%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Berazategui | Estrella Del Sur |
|---|
| League position | #7 (37 pts) | #4 (39 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 31% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Berazategui shown at home, Estrella Del Sur shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Berazategui — last 5
DWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 20% of home games go over 2.5.
Estrella Del Sur — last 5
DLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 25% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Berazategui (home) | Estrella Del Sur (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-4-4 in 12 (1.4 / 1.2 goals per game) | 4-4-5 in 13 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 25% |
Primera C Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.83
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 31%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 29%
BTTS: 33%
Use these Primera C Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.6 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (21%) |
| Double chance — Berazategui or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Estrella Del Sur or draw (X2) | 78% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 65% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 7% / 93% |
| Berazategui clean sheet | 38% |
| Estrella Del Sur clean sheet | 55% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Estrella Del Sur is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Estrella Del Sur edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (67% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur — FAQ
Who will win Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur?
Our statistical model makes Estrella Del Sur the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Berazategui 24%, draw 35%, Estrella Del Sur 42%.
Will both teams score in Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur?
Expected goals are 0.6 for Berazategui and 0.97 for Estrella Del Sur — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Berazategui vs Estrella Del Sur?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (21%). Double chance for Berazategui or draw is 57%.