Bergisch Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund II Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Bergisch Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund II
Model pick: Draw (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.61 – 0.8
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 30%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bergisch Gladbach | Borussia Dortmund II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.6 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
*Bergisch Gladbach shown at home, Borussia Dortmund II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bergisch Gladbach — last 5
DWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Borussia Dortmund II — last 5
LLWDD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 61% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bergisch Gladbach (home) | Borussia Dortmund II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 61% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.36
Home wins: 37%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.61 vs 0.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (24%) |
| Double chance — Bergisch Gladbach or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Borussia Dortmund II or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 62% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 5% / 95% |
| Bergisch Gladbach clean sheet | 45% |
| Borussia Dortmund II clean sheet | 54% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (70% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bergisch Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund II — FAQ
Who will win Bergisch Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund II?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Bergisch Gladbach 26%, draw 37%, Borussia Dortmund II 36%.
Will both teams score in Bergisch Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund II?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Bergisch Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund II?
Expected goals are 0.61 for Bergisch Gladbach and 0.8 for Borussia Dortmund II — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bergisch Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (24%). Double chance for Bergisch Gladbach or draw is 63%.