Berwick vs Bonnyrigg Rose Prediction & Preview
Lowland League (Scotland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LOWLAND LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Berwick vs Bonnyrigg Rose
Model pick: Bonnyrigg Rose (98%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.28 – 5.86
Total goals: 6.1
Over 2.5: 79%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Berwick | Bonnyrigg Rose |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.6 | 2.6 / 0.4 |
*Berwick shown at home, Bonnyrigg Rose shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Berwick — last 5
DLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Bonnyrigg Rose — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Berwick (home) | Bonnyrigg Rose (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
Lowland League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.46
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 18%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Lowland League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.28 vs 5.86):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-5 (14%) |
| Double chance — Berwick or draw (1X) | 1% |
| Double chance — Bonnyrigg Rose or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 99% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Berwick clean sheet | 0% |
| Bonnyrigg Rose clean sheet | 76% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bonnyrigg Rose is the model's most likely outcome at
98%. Despite playing away, Bonnyrigg Rose edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 6.1, this shapes as an open game (79% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Berwick vs Bonnyrigg Rose — FAQ
Who will win Berwick vs Bonnyrigg Rose?
Our statistical model makes Bonnyrigg Rose the most likely result at 98%. Full probabilities: Berwick 0%, draw 2%, Bonnyrigg Rose 98%.
Will both teams score in Berwick vs Bonnyrigg Rose?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Berwick vs Bonnyrigg Rose?
Expected goals are 0.28 for Berwick and 5.86 for Bonnyrigg Rose — about 6.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Berwick vs Bonnyrigg Rose?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-5 (14%). Double chance for Berwick or draw is 1%.