BKV Elore vs ESMTK Budapest Prediction & Preview
Nb III (Hungary) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB III (HUNGARY)
BKV Elore vs ESMTK Budapest
Model pick: ESMTK Budapest (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.2 – 0.95
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 24%
Both teams score: 29%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| BKV Elore | ESMTK Budapest |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.33 / 4.33 | 2.0 / 1.5 |
*BKV Elore shown at home, ESMTK Budapest shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
BKV Elore — last 5
LLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
ESMTK Budapest — last 5
WD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | BKV Elore (home) | ESMTK Budapest (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
Nb III (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.7
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 74%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Nb III (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.2 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (32%) |
| Double chance — BKV Elore or draw (1X) | 46% |
| Double chance — ESMTK Budapest or draw (X2) | 92% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 62% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| BKV Elore clean sheet | 39% |
| ESMTK Budapest clean sheet | 82% |
🎯 Our Verdict
ESMTK Budapest is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Despite playing away, ESMTK Budapest edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (76% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ BKV Elore vs ESMTK Budapest — FAQ
Who will win BKV Elore vs ESMTK Budapest?
Our statistical model makes ESMTK Budapest the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: BKV Elore 10%, draw 38%, ESMTK Budapest 52%.
Will both teams score in BKV Elore vs ESMTK Budapest?
The model gives a 29% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in BKV Elore vs ESMTK Budapest?
Expected goals are 0.2 for BKV Elore and 0.95 for ESMTK Budapest — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in BKV Elore vs ESMTK Budapest?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (32%). Double chance for BKV Elore or draw is 46%.