Bodø / Glimt vs Lillestrøm Prediction & Preview
Eliteserien (Norway) · Jul 31, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ELITESERIEN (NORWAY)
Bodø / Glimt vs Lillestrøm
Model pick: Bodø / Glimt (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.03 – 0.89
Total goals: 3.9
Over 2.5: 66%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bodø / Glimt | Lillestrøm |
|---|
| League position | #23 (9 pts) | #4 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 57% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.2 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Bodø / Glimt shown at home, Lillestrøm shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bodø / Glimt — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 68% of home games go over 2.5.
Lillestrøm — last 5
WWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bodø / Glimt (home) | Lillestrøm (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-2 in 4 (1.8 / 1.8 goals per game) | 4-1-2 in 7 (1.1 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% |
| Top scorer | Jens Hauge (6) | – |
Eliteserien (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.99
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eliteserien (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.03 vs 0.89):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (9%) |
| Double chance — Bodø / Glimt or draw (1X) | 92% |
| Double chance — Lillestrøm or draw (X2) | 20% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Bodø / Glimt clean sheet | 41% |
| Lillestrøm clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bodø / Glimt is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Bodø / Glimt are backed at home, where they average 2.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.9, this shapes as an open game (66% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bodø / Glimt vs Lillestrøm — FAQ
Who will win Bodø / Glimt vs Lillestrøm?
Our statistical model makes Bodø / Glimt the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Bodø / Glimt 72%, draw 16%, Lillestrøm 12%.
Will both teams score in Bodø / Glimt vs Lillestrøm?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bodø / Glimt vs Lillestrøm?
Expected goals are 3.03 for Bodø / Glimt and 0.89 for Lillestrøm — about 3.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bodø / Glimt vs Lillestrøm?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (9%). Double chance for Bodø / Glimt or draw is 92%.