Bodø / Glimt vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction & Preview
UEFA Champions League (Europe) · Aug 11, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Bodø / Glimt vs Union Saint-Gilloise
Model pick: Bodø / Glimt (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.02 – 2.21
Total goals: 6.2
Over 2.5: 84%
Both teams score: 66%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bodø / Glimt | Union Saint-Gilloise |
|---|
| League position | #23 (9 pts) | #16 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.8 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 0.6 | 2.8 / 2.4 |
*Bodø / Glimt shown at home, Union Saint-Gilloise shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bodø / Glimt — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 68% of home games go over 2.5.
Union Saint-Gilloise — last 5
LWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bodø / Glimt (home) | Union Saint-Gilloise (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-2 in 4 (1.8 / 1.8 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Jens Hauge (6) | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (10) |
UEFA Champions League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.92
Home wins: 53%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 53%
Use these UEFA Champions League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.02 vs 2.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-2 (5%) |
| Double chance — Bodø / Glimt or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Union Saint-Gilloise or draw (X2) | 31% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Bodø / Glimt clean sheet | 11% |
| Union Saint-Gilloise clean sheet | 2% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bodø / Glimt is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Bodø / Glimt are backed at home, where they average 2.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 6.2, this shapes as an open game (84% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bodø / Glimt vs Union Saint-Gilloise — FAQ
Who will win Bodø / Glimt vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
Our statistical model makes Bodø / Glimt the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Bodø / Glimt 59%, draw 19%, Union Saint-Gilloise 22%.
Will both teams score in Bodø / Glimt vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
The model gives a 66% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bodø / Glimt vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
Expected goals are 4.02 for Bodø / Glimt and 2.21 for Union Saint-Gilloise — about 6.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bodø / Glimt vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-2 (5%). Double chance for Bodø / Glimt or draw is 82%.