Bohemians vs Derry City Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ireland) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRELAND)
Bohemians vs Derry City
Model pick: Bohemians (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.11
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bohemians | Derry City |
|---|
| League position | #3 (44 pts) | #6 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 31% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.4 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Bohemians shown at home, Derry City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bohemians — last 5
DDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Derry City — last 5
LLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bohemians (home) | Derry City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-6-3 in 13 (1.3 / 1.2 goals per game) | 1-7-5 in 13 (0.9 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% |
Premier League (Ireland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premier League (Ireland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.26 vs 1.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Bohemians or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Derry City or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Bohemians clean sheet | 33% |
| Derry City clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bohemians is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Bohemians are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Bohemians vs Derry City — FAQ
Who will win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model makes Bohemians the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Bohemians 45%, draw 28%, Derry City 27%.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Expected goals are 1.26 for Bohemians and 1.11 for Derry City — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Bohemians or draw is 68%.