Bologna vs Lazio Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Aug 24, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Bologna vs Lazio
Model pick: Bologna (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.22 – 1.17
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bologna | Lazio |
|---|
| League position | #10 (15 pts) | #16 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 2.8 / 1.4 |
*Bologna shown at home, Lazio shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bologna — last 5
DWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Lazio — last 5
WWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bologna (home) | Lazio (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-3-0 in 4 (1.8 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Federico Bernardeschi (5) | – |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.22 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Bologna or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Lazio or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Bologna clean sheet | 31% |
| Lazio clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bologna is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Bologna are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Bologna vs Lazio — FAQ
Who will win Bologna vs Lazio?
Our statistical model makes Bologna the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Bologna 41%, draw 29%, Lazio 30%.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lazio?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bologna vs Lazio?
Expected goals are 1.22 for Bologna and 1.17 for Lazio — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bologna vs Lazio?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Bologna or draw is 65%.