Botafogo SP vs Criciúma Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 20, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Botafogo SP vs Criciúma
Model pick: Criciúma (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.84 – 1.09
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Botafogo SP | Criciúma |
|---|
| League position | #13 (27 pts) | #1 (40 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 45% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 0.6 |
*Botafogo SP shown at home, Criciúma shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Botafogo SP — last 5
DWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 31% of home games go over 2.5.
Criciúma — last 5
WWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 37% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Botafogo SP (home) | Criciúma (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-3 in 10 (1.9 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-3-3 in 11 (1.0 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 37% |
| Top scorer | Barletta Chrystian (8) | Romulo Otero (3) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.84 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (16%) |
| Double chance — Botafogo SP or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Criciúma or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Botafogo SP clean sheet | 34% |
| Criciúma clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Criciúma is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Criciúma edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Botafogo SP vs Criciúma — FAQ
Who will win Botafogo SP vs Criciúma?
Our statistical model makes Criciúma the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Botafogo SP 32%, draw 31%, Criciúma 37%.
Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Criciúma?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Botafogo SP vs Criciúma?
Expected goals are 0.84 for Botafogo SP and 1.09 for Criciúma — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Botafogo SP vs Criciúma?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Double chance for Botafogo SP or draw is 59%.