Botafogo SP vs Cuiabá Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Botafogo SP vs Cuiabá
Model pick: Cuiabá (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.03 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Botafogo SP | Cuiabá |
|---|
| League position | #14 (31 pts) | #12 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Botafogo SP shown at home, Cuiabá shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Botafogo SP — last 5
WLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 31% of home games go over 2.5.
Cuiabá — last 5
DDWWD
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Botafogo SP (home) | Cuiabá (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-3 in 11 (1.8 / 1.2 goals per game) | 3-5-3 in 11 (0.9 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 33% |
| Top scorer | Barletta Chrystian (8) | – |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.03 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Botafogo SP or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Cuiabá or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Botafogo SP clean sheet | 36% |
| Cuiabá clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cuiabá is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Despite playing away, Cuiabá edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Botafogo SP vs Cuiabá — FAQ
Who will win Botafogo SP vs Cuiabá?
Our statistical model makes Cuiabá the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Botafogo SP 34%, draw 31%, Cuiabá 35%.
Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Cuiabá?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Botafogo SP vs Cuiabá?
Expected goals are 1.03 for Botafogo SP and 1.03 for Cuiabá — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Botafogo SP vs Cuiabá?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (14%). Double chance for Botafogo SP or draw is 65%.