Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino
Model pick: Novorizontino (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.82 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Botafogo SP | Novorizontino |
|---|
| League position | #15 (31 pts) | #4 (43 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.7 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
*Botafogo SP shown at home, Novorizontino shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Botafogo SP — last 5
WDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 32% of home games go over 2.5.
Novorizontino — last 5
LDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Botafogo SP (home) | Novorizontino (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-4 in 12 (1.8 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-5-3 in 13 (1.7 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 33% |
| Top scorer | Perotti Pedro (9) | Robson (9) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.82 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (16%) |
| Double chance — Botafogo SP or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Novorizontino or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Botafogo SP clean sheet | 32% |
| Novorizontino clean sheet | 44% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Novorizontino is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Novorizontino edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino — FAQ
Who will win Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino?
Our statistical model makes Novorizontino the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Botafogo SP 27%, draw 31%, Novorizontino 42%.
Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino?
Expected goals are 0.82 for Botafogo SP and 1.15 for Novorizontino — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Double chance for Botafogo SP or draw is 57%.