Botev Plovdiv II vs Krumovgrad Prediction & Preview
V AFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
V AFG (BULGARIA)
Botev Plovdiv II vs Krumovgrad
Model pick: Krumovgrad (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.71 – 4.84
Total goals: 9.6
Over 2.5: 89%
Both teams score: 84%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Botev Plovdiv II | Krumovgrad |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.75 | 2.6 / 1.6 |
*Botev Plovdiv II shown at home, Krumovgrad shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Botev Plovdiv II — last 5
WLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Krumovgrad — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Botev Plovdiv II (home) | Krumovgrad (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 38% |
V AFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.17
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these V AFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.71 vs 4.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-4 (4%) |
| Double chance — Botev Plovdiv II or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Krumovgrad or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Botev Plovdiv II clean sheet | 1% |
| Krumovgrad clean sheet | 1% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Krumovgrad is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Krumovgrad edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 9.6, this shapes as an open game (89% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Botev Plovdiv II vs Krumovgrad — FAQ
Who will win Botev Plovdiv II vs Krumovgrad?
Our statistical model makes Krumovgrad the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Botev Plovdiv II 41%, draw 16%, Krumovgrad 44%.
Will both teams score in Botev Plovdiv II vs Krumovgrad?
The model gives a 84% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Botev Plovdiv II vs Krumovgrad?
Expected goals are 4.71 for Botev Plovdiv II and 4.84 for Krumovgrad — about 9.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Botev Plovdiv II vs Krumovgrad?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-4 (4%). Double chance for Botev Plovdiv II or draw is 56%.