Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More
Model pick: Botev Plovdiv (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.11
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Botev Plovdiv | Cherno More |
|---|
| League position | #6 (1 pts) | #7 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Botev Plovdiv shown at home, Cherno More shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Botev Plovdiv — last 5
WLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Cherno More — last 5
WDDDL
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Botev Plovdiv (home) | Cherno More (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Mascote (7) | Georgi Lazarov (5) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Botev Plovdiv or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Cherno More or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Botev Plovdiv clean sheet | 33% |
| Cherno More clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Botev Plovdiv is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Botev Plovdiv are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More — FAQ
Who will win Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More?
Our statistical model makes Botev Plovdiv the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Botev Plovdiv 41%, draw 29%, Cherno More 30%.
Will both teams score in Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Botev Plovdiv and 1.11 for Cherno More — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Botev Plovdiv or draw is 64%.