Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
Model pick: Botev Plovdiv (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.94 – 1.02
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Botev Plovdiv | Spartak Varna |
|---|
| League position | #6 (4 pts) | #5 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.5 | 3.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.8 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
*Botev Plovdiv shown at home, Spartak Varna shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Botev Plovdiv — last 5
WWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Spartak Varna — last 5
LDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Botev Plovdiv (home) | Spartak Varna (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Mascote (7) | Georg Stojanovski (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.94 vs 1.02):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Botev Plovdiv or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Spartak Varna or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Botev Plovdiv clean sheet | 36% |
| Spartak Varna clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Botev Plovdiv is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Botev Plovdiv are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna — FAQ
Who will win Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
Our statistical model makes Botev Plovdiv the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Botev Plovdiv 55%, draw 24%, Spartak Varna 21%.
Will both teams score in Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
Expected goals are 1.94 for Botev Plovdiv and 1.02 for Spartak Varna — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Botev Plovdiv or draw is 81%.