Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv
Model pick: Botev Plovdiv (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.03 – 1.45
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Botev Vratsa | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|
| League position | #14 (1 pts) | #5 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.6 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Botev Vratsa shown at home, Botev Plovdiv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Botev Vratsa — last 5
DLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
Botev Plovdiv — last 5
DLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Botev Vratsa (home) | Botev Plovdiv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (1.0 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Martin Petkov (4) | Mascote (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.03 vs 1.45):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Botev Vratsa or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Botev Plovdiv or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Botev Vratsa clean sheet | 23% |
| Botev Plovdiv clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Botev Plovdiv is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Botev Plovdiv edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv — FAQ
Who will win Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv?
Our statistical model makes Botev Plovdiv the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Botev Vratsa 28%, draw 28%, Botev Plovdiv 45%.
Will both teams score in Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv?
Expected goals are 1.03 for Botev Vratsa and 1.45 for Botev Plovdiv — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Botev Vratsa or draw is 53%.