Boulogne vs Dijon Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Boulogne vs Dijon
Model pick: Boulogne (34%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.99 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Boulogne | Dijon |
|---|
| League position | #15 (3 pts) | #17 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Boulogne shown at home, Dijon shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Boulogne — last 5
DDLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Dijon — last 5
WDDLD
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Boulogne (home) | Dijon (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (0.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-2-0 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.99 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Boulogne or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Dijon or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Boulogne clean sheet | 37% |
| Dijon clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Boulogne is the model's most likely outcome at
34%. Boulogne are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Boulogne vs Dijon — FAQ
Who will win Boulogne vs Dijon?
Our statistical model makes Boulogne the most likely result at 34%. Full probabilities: Boulogne 34%, draw 31%, Dijon 34%.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Dijon?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Boulogne vs Dijon?
Expected goals are 0.99 for Boulogne and 1.0 for Dijon — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Boulogne vs Dijon?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (14%). Double chance for Boulogne or draw is 65%.