Boulogne vs Red Star Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Boulogne vs Red Star
Model pick: Red Star (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.02 – 1.21
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Boulogne | Red Star |
|---|
| League position | #14 (1 pts) | #6 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Boulogne shown at home, Red Star shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Boulogne — last 5
WLDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Red Star — last 5
LWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Boulogne (home) | Red Star (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% |
| Top scorer | – | Damien Durand (13) |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 1.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Boulogne or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Red Star or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Boulogne clean sheet | 30% |
| Red Star clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Red Star is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Red Star edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Boulogne vs Red Star — FAQ
Who will win Boulogne vs Red Star?
Our statistical model makes Red Star the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Boulogne 30%, draw 30%, Red Star 39%.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Red Star?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Boulogne vs Red Star?
Expected goals are 1.02 for Boulogne and 1.21 for Red Star — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Boulogne vs Red Star?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Boulogne or draw is 60%.