Boyacá Chicó vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 06, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Boyacá Chicó vs Alianza Petrolera
Model pick: Alianza Petrolera (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Boyacá Chicó | Alianza Petrolera |
|---|
| League position | #18 (17 pts) | #17 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
*Boyacá Chicó shown at home, Alianza Petrolera shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Boyacá Chicó — last 5
DWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
Alianza Petrolera — last 5
WWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Boyacá Chicó (home) | Alianza Petrolera (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Italo Montano (3) | – |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.07 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Boyacá Chicó or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Alianza Petrolera or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Boyacá Chicó clean sheet | 32% |
| Alianza Petrolera clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alianza Petrolera is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Alianza Petrolera edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Boyacá Chicó vs Alianza Petrolera — FAQ
Who will win Boyacá Chicó vs Alianza Petrolera?
Our statistical model makes Alianza Petrolera the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Boyacá Chicó 34%, draw 30%, Alianza Petrolera 36%.
Will both teams score in Boyacá Chicó vs Alianza Petrolera?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Boyacá Chicó vs Alianza Petrolera?
Expected goals are 1.07 for Boyacá Chicó and 1.13 for Alianza Petrolera — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Boyacá Chicó vs Alianza Petrolera?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Boyacá Chicó or draw is 63%.