Boyacá Chicó vs Fortaleza CEIF Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Boyacá Chicó vs Fortaleza CEIF
Model pick: Fortaleza CEIF (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.94 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Boyacá Chicó | Fortaleza CEIF |
|---|
| League position | #18 (17 pts) | #15 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 3.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Boyacá Chicó shown at home, Fortaleza CEIF shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Boyacá Chicó — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
Fortaleza CEIF — last 5
LDDLW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Boyacá Chicó (home) | Fortaleza CEIF (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 44% |
| Top scorer | Italo Montano (3) | – |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.94 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Boyacá Chicó or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Fortaleza CEIF or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Boyacá Chicó clean sheet | 32% |
| Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fortaleza CEIF is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Fortaleza CEIF edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Boyacá Chicó vs Fortaleza CEIF — FAQ
Who will win Boyacá Chicó vs Fortaleza CEIF?
Our statistical model makes Fortaleza CEIF the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Boyacá Chicó 31%, draw 30%, Fortaleza CEIF 39%.
Will both teams score in Boyacá Chicó vs Fortaleza CEIF?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Boyacá Chicó vs Fortaleza CEIF?
Expected goals are 0.94 for Boyacá Chicó and 1.13 for Fortaleza CEIF — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Boyacá Chicó vs Fortaleza CEIF?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Boyacá Chicó or draw is 60%.