Boyacá Chicó vs Once Caldas Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Boyacá Chicó vs Once Caldas
Model pick: Once Caldas (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.89 – 1.27
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Boyacá Chicó | Once Caldas |
|---|
| League position | #18 (17 pts) | #5 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 2.4 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Boyacá Chicó shown at home, Once Caldas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Boyacá Chicó — last 5
LLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 35% of home games go over 2.5.
Once Caldas — last 5
WDLDD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Boyacá Chicó (home) | Once Caldas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 38% |
| Top scorer | Italo Montano (3) | Dayro Moreno (10) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.89 vs 1.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Boyacá Chicó or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Once Caldas or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Boyacá Chicó clean sheet | 28% |
| Once Caldas clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Once Caldas is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, Once Caldas edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Boyacá Chicó vs Once Caldas — FAQ
Who will win Boyacá Chicó vs Once Caldas?
Our statistical model makes Once Caldas the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Boyacá Chicó 27%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 43%.
Will both teams score in Boyacá Chicó vs Once Caldas?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Boyacá Chicó vs Once Caldas?
Expected goals are 0.89 for Boyacá Chicó and 1.27 for Once Caldas — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Boyacá Chicó vs Once Caldas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Boyacá Chicó or draw is 55%.