Brage vs Örebro Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Brage vs Örebro
Model pick: Brage (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.8 – 1.09
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Brage | Örebro |
|---|
| League position | #11 (20 pts) | #14 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 2.2 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Brage shown at home, Örebro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Brage — last 5
WLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Örebro — last 5
WWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Brage (home) | Örebro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-3 in 8 (2.2 / 2.2 goals per game) | 1-3-4 in 8 (0.9 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Felix Horberg (2) | – |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.8 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Brage or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Örebro or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Brage clean sheet | 34% |
| Örebro clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Brage is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Brage are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Brage vs Örebro — FAQ
Who will win Brage vs Örebro?
Our statistical model makes Brage the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Brage 47%, draw 26%, Örebro 28%.
Will both teams score in Brage vs Örebro?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Brage vs Örebro?
Expected goals are 1.8 for Brage and 1.09 for Örebro — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Brage vs Örebro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Brage or draw is 77%.