Brann vs Lillestrøm Prediction & Preview
Eliteserien (Norway) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ELITESERIEN (NORWAY)
Brann vs Lillestrøm
Model pick: Brann (53%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.1 – 0.99
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Brann | Lillestrøm |
|---|
| League position | #24 (9 pts) | #6 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.0 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
*Brann shown at home, Lillestrøm shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Brann — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Lillestrøm — last 5
LLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Brann (home) | Lillestrøm (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-1 in 4 (1.8 / 1.8 goals per game) | 4-2-3 in 9 (1.0 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 65% |
| Top scorer | Saevar Magnusson (1) | – |
Eliteserien (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.99
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eliteserien (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.1 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Brann or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Lillestrøm or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Brann clean sheet | 37% |
| Lillestrøm clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Brann is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Brann are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Brann vs Lillestrøm — FAQ
Who will win Brann vs Lillestrøm?
Our statistical model makes Brann the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Brann 53%, draw 24%, Lillestrøm 24%.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Lillestrøm?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Brann vs Lillestrøm?
Expected goals are 2.1 for Brann and 0.99 for Lillestrøm — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Brann vs Lillestrøm?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%). Double chance for Brann or draw is 83%.