Breidablik vs Valur Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 19:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
Breidablik vs Valur
Model pick: Breidablik (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.05 – 1.41
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Breidablik | Valur |
|---|
| League position | #30 (5 pts) | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 2.0 |
*Breidablik shown at home, Valur shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Breidablik — last 5
WWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Valur — last 5
LLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 68% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Breidablik (home) | Valur (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-2-0 in 3 (1.7 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 68% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.05 vs 1.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Breidablik or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Valur or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Breidablik clean sheet | 24% |
| Valur clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Breidablik is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Breidablik are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Breidablik vs Valur — FAQ
Who will win Breidablik vs Valur?
Our statistical model makes Breidablik the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Breidablik 50%, draw 23%, Valur 28%.
Will both teams score in Breidablik vs Valur?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Breidablik vs Valur?
Expected goals are 2.05 for Breidablik and 1.41 for Valur — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Breidablik vs Valur?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Breidablik or draw is 74%.