Bucheon 1995 vs Daejeon Hana Citizen Prediction & Preview
K-League (South Korea) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K-LEAGUE (SOUTH KOREA)
Bucheon 1995 vs Daejeon Hana Citizen
Model pick: Bucheon 1995 (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.56 – 1.3
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bucheon 1995 | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
|---|
| League position | #10 (31 pts) | #9 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 21% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.8 | 2.2 / 2.0 |
*Bucheon 1995 shown at home, Daejeon Hana Citizen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bucheon 1995 — last 5
WDWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Daejeon Hana Citizen — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bucheon 1995 (home) | Daejeon Hana Citizen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-6-5 in 14 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-3-5 in 13 (1.6 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 53% |
| Top scorer | – | Jae-Hee Jeong (2) |
K-League (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 55%
Use these K-League (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.56 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Bucheon 1995 or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Daejeon Hana Citizen or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Bucheon 1995 clean sheet | 27% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bucheon 1995 is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Bucheon 1995 are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Bucheon 1995 vs Daejeon Hana Citizen — FAQ
Who will win Bucheon 1995 vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?
Our statistical model makes Bucheon 1995 the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Bucheon 1995 42%, draw 26%, Daejeon Hana Citizen 32%.
Will both teams score in Bucheon 1995 vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bucheon 1995 vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?
Expected goals are 1.56 for Bucheon 1995 and 1.3 for Daejeon Hana Citizen — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bucheon 1995 vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Bucheon 1995 or draw is 68%.